TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon GONI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 23 Aug, 2015 0:00 GMT

Typhoon GONI (16W) currently located near 23.3 N 123.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 75% currently
    South Korea
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon GONI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Aug, 2015 18:00 GMT

Typhoon GONI (16W) currently located near 22.3 N 123.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    South Korea
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
        probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 60% in about 72 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Pusan (35.2 N, 129.1 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
    Taegu (35.9 N, 128.6 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours

Note that
    Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon GONI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Aug, 2015 12:00 GMT

Typhoon GONI (16W) currently located near 21.4 N 123.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    South Korea
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Hiroshima (34.4 N, 132.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon GONI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 22 Aug, 2015 6:00 GMT

Typhoon GONI (16W) currently located near 20.7 N 122.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
    Taiwan
        probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
    the Philippines
        probability for TS is 55% currently
    Japan
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
    Okinawa (26.3 N, 127.8 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
        probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
    Fukuoka (33.6 N, 130.4 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Saga (33.3 N, 130.3 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Nagasaki (32.8 N, 129.9 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Kumamoto (32.7 N, 130.7 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
    Kagoshima (31.5 N, 130.5 E)
        probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
        probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Note that
    Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
    CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
    TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.