NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 19 Oct, 2016 0:00 GMT
Super Typhoon HAIMA is currently located near 16.0 N 126.0 E with maximum 1-min sustained winds of 140 kts (161 mph). HAIMA is a category 5 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. HAIMA is forecast to affect land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):
Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 85% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 65% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Taiwan
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 72 hours
Hong Kong
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Kao-hsiung (22.6 N, 120.3 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.
