TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm IRINA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 1 Mar, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRINA (14S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mozambique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Maintirano (18.0 S, 44.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Besalampy (16.7 S, 44.5 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
Massinga (23.3 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Inhambane (23.9 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Cheline (22.5 S, 35.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Vilanculos (22.0 S, 35.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Xai-Xai (25.0 S, 33.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 1 Mar, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRINA (14S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mozambique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Maintirano (18.0 S, 44.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Besalampy (16.7 S, 44.5 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
Massinga (23.3 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Inhambane (23.9 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Cheline (22.5 S, 35.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Vilanculos (22.0 S, 35.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Xai-Xai (25.0 S, 33.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm IRINA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 29 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRINA (14S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mozambique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 5% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Massinga (23.3 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Inhambane (23.9 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Vilanculos (22.0 S, 35.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Cheline (22.5 S, 35.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Inhassore (21.5 S, 35.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 29 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRINA (14S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mozambique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 5% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Massinga (23.3 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Inhambane (23.9 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Vilanculos (22.0 S, 35.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Cheline (22.5 S, 35.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Inhassore (21.5 S, 35.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm IRINA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 29 Feb, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRINA (14S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mozambique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vilanculos (22.0 S, 35.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Cheline (22.5 S, 35.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Massinga (23.3 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Inhambane (23.9 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Maintirano (18.0 S, 44.1 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 29 Feb, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm IRINA (14S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mozambique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vilanculos (22.0 S, 35.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Cheline (22.5 S, 35.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Massinga (23.3 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Inhambane (23.9 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Maintirano (18.0 S, 44.1 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm HILWA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 21 Feb, 2012 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HILWA (13S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 21 Feb, 2012 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HILWA (13S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for TS is 70% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm HILWA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 21 Feb, 2012 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HILWA (13S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 21 Feb, 2012 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HILWA (13S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm HILWA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 20 Feb, 2012 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HILWA (13S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 20 Feb, 2012 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm HILWA (13S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm THIRTEEN

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 20 Feb, 2012 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm THIRTEEN (13S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 20 Feb, 2012 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm THIRTEEN (13S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone GIOVANNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 19 Feb, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 19 Feb, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 100% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
probability for TS is 90% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm GIOVANNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 18 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 18 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm GIOVANNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 18 Feb, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 18 Feb, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tolanaro (25.0 S, 47.0 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm GIOVANNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 17 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 17 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 70% within 12 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambovombe (25.2 S, 46.1 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

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.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm GIOVANNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 17 Feb, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 17 Feb, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm GIOVANNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 16 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 16 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm GIOVANNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 15 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 15 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 40% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm GIOVANNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 15 Feb, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 70% currently
Mozambique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
Massinga (23.3 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Inhambane (23.9 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Vilanculos (22.0 S, 35.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Cheline (22.5 S, 35.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Xai-Xai (25.0 S, 33.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 15 Feb, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 70% currently
Mozambique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
Massinga (23.3 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Inhambane (23.9 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Vilanculos (22.0 S, 35.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Cheline (22.5 S, 35.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Xai-Xai (25.0 S, 33.6 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm JASMINE

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Feb, 2012 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JASMINE (10P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku' alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Feb, 2012 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JASMINE (10P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku' alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for TS is 45% currently

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm THIRTEEN

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 14 Feb, 2012 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm THIRTEEN (13S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 14 Feb, 2012 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm THIRTEEN (13S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Mathurin (19.7 S, 63.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm GIOVANNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 14 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 70% currently
Mozambique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)
probability for TS is 65% currently
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
Massinga (23.3 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Inhambane (23.9 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 14 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for TS is 70% currently
Mozambique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)
probability for TS is 65% currently
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
Massinga (23.3 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Inhambane (23.9 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm JASMINE

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Feb, 2012 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JASMINE (10P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku' alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Feb, 2012 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JASMINE (10P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku' alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for TS is 65% currently

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

[Tsunami Message - IOC] Tsunami Information Bulletin

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0827Z 14 FEB 2012

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ...

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0820Z 14 FEB 2012
COORDINATES - 10.4 SOUTH 161.3 EAST
DEPTH - 55 KM
LOCATION - SOLOMON ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 6.5

EVALUATION

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER - EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL
TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN
A HUNDRED KILOMETERS OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES
IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ALSO ISSUE TSUNAMI MESSAGES
FOR THIS EVENT TO COUNTRIES IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND SOUTH
CHINA SEA REGION. IN CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION... THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.

THE WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Cyclone GIOVANNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 14 Feb, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mozambique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% currently
probability for TS is 95% currently
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
Massinga (23.3 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
Inhambane (23.9 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
Vilanculos (22.0 S, 35.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 72 hours
Cheline (22.5 S, 35.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 14 Feb, 2012 0:00 GMT

Tropical Cyclone GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 95% currently

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mozambique
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% currently
probability for TS is 95% currently
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 85% within 12 hours
Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 65% within 12 hours
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 24 hours
Massinga (23.3 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
Inhambane (23.9 S, 35.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 72 hours
Vilanculos (22.0 S, 35.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 72 hours
Cheline (22.5 S, 35.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm JASMINE

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Feb, 2012 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JASMINE (10P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku' alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Feb, 2012 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JASMINE (10P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku' alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for TS is 40% within 12 hours

Note that
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Very Intense TC GIOVANNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 13 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Very Intense TC GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)
probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 13 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Very Intense TC GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours
Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)
probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm JASMINE

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Feb, 2012 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JASMINE (10P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku' alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Feb, 2012 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JASMINE (10P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku' alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for TS is 80% within 12 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Very Intense TC GIOVANNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 13 Feb, 2012 0:00 GMT

Very Intense TC GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Reunion
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 80% currently
Antalaha (14.9 S, 50.2 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mauritius
probability for TS is 45% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% currently
Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Ihosy (22.3 S, 46.1 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 13 Feb, 2012 0:00 GMT

Very Intense TC GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Reunion
probability for TS is 95% currently
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)
probability for TS is 85% in about 24 hours
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 80% currently
Antalaha (14.9 S, 50.2 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 24 hours
Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 24 hours
Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mauritius
probability for TS is 45% currently
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Morondava (20.3 S, 44.3 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Morombe (21.8 S, 43.4 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
probability for TS is 35% currently
Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours
Ihosy (22.3 S, 46.1 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 36 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm JASMINE

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Feb, 2012 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JASMINE (10P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku' alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html.

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

SW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Feb, 2012 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm JASMINE (10P) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Nuku' alofa (21.1 S, 175.2 W)
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Intense Tropical Cyclone GIOVANNA

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 12 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Intense Tropical Cyclone GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mauritius
probability for TS is 100% currently
Reunion
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Antalaha (14.9 S, 50.2 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

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This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

S Indian Ocean: Storm Alert issued at 12 Feb, 2012 12:00 GMT

Intense Tropical Cyclone GIOVANNA (12S) is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Madagascar
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Toamasina (18.2 S, 49.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Vatomandry (19.3 S, 48.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
Antananarivo (18.9 S, 47.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Mauritius
probability for TS is 100% currently
Reunion
probability for TS is 90% within 12 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Port Louis (20.2 S, 57.5 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Ambodifototra (16.9 S, 49.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 90% in about 36 hours
St Pierre (21.3 S, 55.5 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Nosy-Varika (20.6 S, 48.5 E)
probability for TS is 75% in about 48 hours
Maroantseta (15.4 S, 49.7 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Antalaha (14.9 S, 50.2 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Ambositra (20.4 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Fianarantsoa (21.5 S, 47.1 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Miandrivazo (19.4 S, 45.7 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Manakara (22.2 S, 48.0 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Tropical Cyclone strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html
.
This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Aon Benfield, RSA Insurance Group, Crawford & Company and Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.