Global Alert Monitor: September 2014

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

[Tsunami Message - IOC] NWS-NTWC Tsunami Information Statement

WEAK53 PAAQ 170625
TIBAK1

PUBLIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
1125 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014

..THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR ALASKA/ BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ WASHINGTON/ OREGON AND CALIFORNIA...

EVALUATION
----------
* THERE IS NO TSUNAMI DANGER FOR THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE.

* BASED ON THE DEPTH OF THE EARTHQUAKE A TSUNAMI
IS NOT EXPECTED.

* AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH PARAMETERS LISTED BELOW.

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* MAGNITUDE 7.1
* ORIGIN TIME 2215 AKDT SEP 16 2014
2315 PDT SEP 16 2014
0615 UTC SEP 17 2014
* COORDINATES 13.7 NORTH 144.5 EAST
* DEPTH 107 MILES
* LOCATION MARIANA ISLANDS

NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------
* THIS WILL BE THE ONLY U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER
MESSAGE FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

* REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

* PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA... OREGON...
WASHINGTON... BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

$$

[Tsunami Message - IOC] Tsunami Information Bulletin

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0623Z 17 SEP 2014

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ...

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0615Z 17 SEP 2014
COORDINATES - 13.7 NORTH 144.5 EAST
DEPTH - 172 KM
LOCATION - MARIANA ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 7.1

EVALUATION

A DESTRUCTIVE TSUNAMI WAS NOT GENERATED BECAUSE THIS EARTHQUAKE
IS LOCATED TOO DEEP INSIDE THE EARTH.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ALSO ISSUE TSUNAMI MESSAGES
FOR THIS EVENT TO COUNTRIES IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND SOUTH
CHINA SEA REGION. IN CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION... THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.

THE U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.

Sunday, September 14, 2014

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon KALMAEGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 15 Sep, 2014 0:00 GMT

Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 18.0 N 117.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 60% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Laos
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Macau
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm KALMAEGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Sep, 2014 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 18.1 N 119.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for TS is 100% currently
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for TS is 100% currently
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Laos
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Hong Kong
probability for TS is 45% in about 24 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for TS is 40% currently
Vinh (18.7 N, 105.7 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% currently
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon KALMAEGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Sep, 2014 12:00 GMT

Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 17.9 N 121.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% currently
probability for TS is 100% currently
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 100% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Hong Kong
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for TS is 95% currently
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 60% within 12 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 36 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Laos
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Phongsali (21.7 N, 102.1 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon KALMAEGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Sep, 2014 6:00 GMT

Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 17.0 N 123.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 90% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% currently
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Hong Kong
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 75% within 12 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Macau
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Vietnam
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Laos
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 48 hours
Ha Giang (22.8 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yen Bai (21.7 N, 104.9 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Thanh Hoa (19.8 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Saturday, September 13, 2014

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon KALMAEGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 14 Sep, 2014 0:00 GMT

Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 16.4 N 124.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 95% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 80% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 75% within 12 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 70% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% within 12 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon KALMAEGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Sep, 2014 18:00 GMT

Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 15.8 N 125.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 100% within 12 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Macau
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 80% in about 24 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 96 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 45% within 12 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Typhoon KALMAEGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Sep, 2014 12:00 GMT

Typhoon KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 15.1 N 126.6 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 50% in about 24 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 36 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 24 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Vietnam
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 45% in about 36 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm KALMAEGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Sep, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 14.7 N 127.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 55% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 95% in about 24 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 35% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 24 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Macau
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 36 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 24 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Friday, September 12, 2014

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm KALMAEGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 13 Sep, 2014 0:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 14.1 N 128.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Red Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 45% in about 36 hours
probability for TS is 85% in about 36 hours
Red Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 40% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 80% in about 36 hours

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 70% in about 48 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 65% in about 36 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Green Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
Macau
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 24 hours

Note that
Red Alert (Severe) is CAT 1 or above to between 31% and 100% probability.
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm KALMAEGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Sep, 2014 18:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 13.7 N 129.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for TS is 60% in about 36 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm KALMAEGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Sep, 2014 12:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 13.8 N 129.7 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 75% in about 36 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 72 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 120 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 120 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for TS is 50% in about 36 hours
Oras (12.1 N, 125.4 E)
probability for TS is 35% in about 24 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Storm KALMAEGI

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Sep, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Storm KALMAEGI (15W) currently located near 13.8 N 130.8 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 30% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 48 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 65% in about 72 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 48 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 50% in about 72 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Yaxian (18.4 N, 109.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Nanning (22.8 N, 108.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Hanoi (21.0 N, 105.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Thai Binh (20.5 N, 106.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 36 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Depression FIFTEEN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 12 Sep, 2014 0:00 GMT

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN (15W) currently located near 13.9 N 132.2 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 25% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 60% in about 48 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 25% in about 96 hours
Vietnam
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 55% in about 48 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 48 hours
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Qionghai (19.2 N, 110.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 96 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours
Beihai (21.6 N, 109.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 96 hours

Green Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Sorsogon (13.0 N, 124.1 E)
probability for TS is 40% in about 48 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
Green Alert (Low) is TS to between 31% and 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Depression FIFTEEN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2014 18:00 GMT

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN (15W) currently located near 14.0 N 134.0 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 48 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 72 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Maoming (21.9 N, 110.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Zhanjiang (21.2 N, 110.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours
Haikou (20.0 N, 110.4 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 15% in about 120 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Depression FIFTEEN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2014 12:00 GMT

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN (15W) currently located near 13.8 N 136.9 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 72 hours
probability for TS is 45% in about 72 hours
China
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
Hong Kong
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 40% in about 72 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Guangzhou (23.1 N, 113.3 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
Shantou (23.0 N, 116.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours
Hong Kong (22.4 N, 114.2 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 20% in about 120 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Depression FIFTEEN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2014 6:00 GMT

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN (15W) currently located near 12.7 N 138.4 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Depression FIFTEEN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 11 Sep, 2014 0:00 GMT

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN (15W) currently located near 10.3 N 139.5 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 72 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Manila (14.6 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

TSR Storm Alert - Tropical Depression FIFTEEN

NW Pacific: Storm Alert issued at 10 Sep, 2014 18:00 GMT

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN (15W) currently located near 9.9 N 141.1 E is forecast to strike land to the following likelihood(s) at the given lead time(s):

Yellow Alert Country(s) or Province(s)
the Philippines
probability for CAT 1 or above is 20% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Yellow Alert City(s) and Town(s)
Laoag (18.2 N, 120.7 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Tuguegarao (17.6 N, 121.8 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 96 hours
Vigan (17.5 N, 120.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 120 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Santiago (16.7 N, 121.5 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 15% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 35% in about 120 hours
San Jose (15.8 N, 121.0 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours
Daet (14.2 N, 122.9 E)
probability for CAT 1 or above is 10% in about 96 hours
probability for TS is 30% in about 96 hours

Note that
Yellow Alert (Elevated) is CAT 1 or above to between 10% and 30% probability, or TS to above 50% probability.
CAT 1 means Typhoon strength winds of at least 74 mph, 119 km/h or 64 knots 1-min sustained.
TS means Tropical Storm strength winds of at least 39 mph, 63 km/h or 34 knots 1-min sustained.

For graphical forecast information and further details please visit http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

To change your TSR Email Alert registration details please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/chg_prefs.html

To unsubscribe from the TSR Email Alert please use the online form at http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/unsubscribe.html.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by UCL, Crawford & Company and the Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre.

Tuesday, September 9, 2014

[Tsunami Message - IOC] NWS-NTWC Tsunami Information Statement

WEAK53 PAAQ 100305
TIBAK1

PUBLIC TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
805 PM PDT TUE SEP 9 2014

..THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR ALASKA/ BRITISH
COLUMBIA/ WASHINGTON/ OREGON AND CALIFORNIA...

EVALUATION
----------
* THERE IS NO TSUNAMI DANGER FOR THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE.

* BASED ON EARTHQUAKE INFORMATION AND HISTORIC TSUNAMI RECORDS
THE EARTHQUAKE WAS NOT SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE A TSUNAMI.

* AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH PARAMETERS LISTED BELOW.

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
---------------------------------
* MAGNITUDE 6.5
* ORIGIN TIME 1846 AKDT SEP 09 2014
1946 PDT SEP 09 2014
0246 UTC SEP 10 2014
* COORDINATES 0.4 SOUTH 125.1 EAST
* DEPTH 43 MILES
* LOCATION SOUTHERN MOLUCCA SEA

NEXT UPDATE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
--------------------------------------
* THIS WILL BE THE ONLY U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER
MESSAGE FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

* REFER TO THE INTERNET SITE NTWC.ARH.NOAA.GOV FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

* PACIFIC COASTAL REGIONS OUTSIDE CALIFORNIA... OREGON...
WASHINGTON... BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALASKA SHOULD REFER TO THE
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER MESSAGES AT PTWC.WEATHER.GOV.

$$

[Tsunami Message - IOC] Tsunami Information Bulletin

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001
PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS
ISSUED AT 0303Z 10 SEP 2014

THIS BULLETIN APPLIES TO AREAS WITHIN AND BORDERING THE PACIFIC
OCEAN AND ADJACENT SEAS...EXCEPT ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...
WASHINGTON...OREGON AND CALIFORNIA.

... TSUNAMI INFORMATION BULLETIN ...

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0246Z 10 SEP 2014
COORDINATES - 0.4 SOUTH 125.1 EAST
DEPTH - 69 KM
LOCATION - KEPULAUAN SULA INDONESIA
MAGNITUDE - 6.5

EVALUATION

NO DESTRUCTIVE WIDESPREAD TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS BASED ON
HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI DATA.

HOWEVER - EARTHQUAKES OF THIS SIZE SOMETIMES GENERATE LOCAL
TSUNAMIS THAT CAN BE DESTRUCTIVE ALONG COASTS LOCATED WITHIN
A HUNDRED KILOMETERS OF THE EARTHQUAKE EPICENTER. AUTHORITIES
IN THE REGION OF THE EPICENTER SHOULD BE AWARE OF THIS
POSSIBILITY AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY BULLETIN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY MAY ALSO ISSUE TSUNAMI MESSAGES
FOR THIS EVENT TO COUNTRIES IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC AND SOUTH
CHINA SEA REGION. IN CASE OF CONFLICTING INFORMATION... THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE INFORMATION SHOULD BE USED FOR SAFETY.

THE U.S. NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER WILL ISSUE PRODUCTS
FOR ALASKA...BRITISH COLUMBIA...WASHINGTON...OREGON...CALIFORNIA.

Pages

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Friday, September 12, 2014

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Wednesday, September 10, 2014

Tuesday, September 9, 2014